Can the Paris Agreement 1.5☌ temperature limit still be achieved? Every avoided increment of warming would reduce extremes such as heatwaves, heavy rainfall, and droughts, as well as long-term impacts and the risk of crossing tipping points of the Earth System. Many changes become larger in direct relation to more warming, and every fraction of a degree makes a difference. Science from the IPCC is clear: limiting warming to 1.5☌ can avoid the worst impacts of climate change. Learn more about the Paris Agreement’s Temperature Goal In the near term, global greenhouse gas emissions need to be halved by 2030. To achieve the Paris Agreement Temperature Goal, net zero CO2 emissions need to be achieved globally around mid-century and net zero emissions of all greenhouse gases shortly thereafter. The Long-Term Temperature Goal of the Paris Agreement is one goal, establishing 1.5☌ global mean temperature rise above pre-industrial levels as the long-term warming limit.
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How to interpret the Paris Agreement Temperature Goal? The best available science tells us that we must, and we can, reach the 1.5☌ goal – but with every passing year of delayed or insufficient action, this becomes a harder task. Almost all countries have submitted their own NDCs. The Paris Agreement requires governments to put forward 2030 pledges and targets to cut carbon emissions to limit warming (called Nationally Determined Contributions or NDCs).
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In 2015, the Paris Agreement established the Long-Term Temperature Goal of “holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2☌ above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5☌ above pre-industrial levels, recognising that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change.”